A signed 33 bcm gas contract, an announced four-country power corridor and a $30 billion grid programme landed in one week in Baku. Only one of the three has a price you can put in a model.
If you sell transformers, HV cable, switchgear, converter stations or substation EPC, the commercial event here is the $30 billion transmission and distribution programme Türkiye has said it will run over the next decade. That is a procurement pipeline with tender lists, and qualifying into those lists over 2026–2028 is work you can start now. If you are an energy-intensive European buyer looking for a second green-supply geography, the useful question is narrower: can corridor power meet the CBAM Annex IV conditions that let you use actual emissions instead of default values.
What you cannot do yet is price the corridor itself. The Azerbaijan–Georgia–Türkiye–Bulgaria green electricity project still has no published capacity figure, route alignment or financing structure. At Baku Energy Week in June 2026 the four energy ministries confirmed that preparation of the preliminary feasibility study would begin during 2026 — a step forward from the April 2025 memorandum, and still short of an asset. Meanwhile the wire sets the timetable: in ENTSO-E's regional plan the two reinforcements the corridor needs carry commissioning years of 2031 and 2035.
Note on dates. This page was first published as a LinkedIn brief on 4 June 2026 and was re-checked against published data on 7 August 2026. Installed-capacity figures have been restated to the latest monthly print, and the Black Sea cable specification has been corrected to the figures in the project feasibility study. Each figure below carries its own date.
On 1 June 2026, at the Baku Energy Forum, Türkiye's Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced a green electricity transmission and trade project linking Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye and Bulgaria. He described it in his own words as “the electricity version of TANAP” — the pipeline that carries Azerbaijani gas through Türkiye to Europe.
The same week produced a signed contract on the gas side. SOCAR, BOTAŞ, TotalEnergies and ADNOC's XRG concluded a 15-year agreement covering 33 billion cubic metres of gas from Azerbaijan's Absheron field, delivered to Türkiye from 2029. Field production is expected to run above 4 bcm a year, with roughly half going to the Turkish market — an average of about 2.2 bcm a year under the contract.
Behind both sits a grid number. Bayraktar said Türkiye is preparing a $30 billion upgrade of its transmission and distribution system over the next decade, tied to interconnection capacity with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Bulgaria.
These three move on different clocks, and the distinction is the whole point. The gas agreement is a contract with named parties, a named field, a defined volume and a start year; it produces cash flows from 2029 whatever happens to the electricity project. The corridor is an announcement with a memorandum behind it. The grid programme is a stated intention that becomes real one tender at a time.
| Instrument | Status | As at |
|---|---|---|
| Absheron gas supply agreement (SOCAR · BOTAŞ · TotalEnergies · ADNOC/XRG) | Signed. 33 bcm over 15 years to Türkiye, deliveries from 2029 | 1 June 2026 |
| AZ–GE–TR–BG green electricity corridor | Memorandum of understanding signed April 2025; reaffirmed June 2026; preliminary feasibility study to begin in 2026. No published capacity, route or financing | 7 Aug 2026 |
| Türkiye transmission and distribution programme | $30 billion over the next decade, stated by the energy minister | 1 June 2026 |
| Greece–Türkiye new 400 kV interconnection | Planned, commissioning year 2031 (ENTSO-E Regional Investment Plan 2024) | RIP 2024 |
| Bulgaria–Türkiye second interconnection | Under consideration, 2035 (ENTSO-E Regional Investment Plan 2024) | RIP 2024 |
| Türkiye electricity export capacity, all borders | 2.3 GW in 2024, 6.8 GW targeted by 2035 (national plan) | National Energy Plan |
Since the June 2026 announcement, the four countries have moved the project one step. Bulgaria's energy ministry confirmed at Baku Energy Week that preparation of the preliminary feasibility study for the Azerbaijan–Georgia–Türkiye–Bulgaria corridor would begin during 2026, and the ministers reaffirmed their commitment to the next implementation steps.
What has still not been published, as at 7 August 2026: a capacity figure, a route alignment, a financing structure, or a signed intergovernmental agreement. Those are the four items that would turn this from a project to watch into a project to price. We said in June that if no definition package appeared by 30 June 2027 we would downgrade the thesis from an emerging overland power corridor to a political option with no priceable asset timetable. That test still stands, and the feasibility-study commitment does not clear it.
Türkiye's transmission system already runs in synchronous parallel with the Continental European grid, and TEİAŞ holds observer status at ENTSO-E. That is the structural difference between the two routes on the table. Power crossing the Türkiye–Bulgaria and Türkiye–Greece borders moves over existing AC interconnections that can be reinforced in stages. The Black Sea subsea route is a single HVDC build that carries nothing until the whole of it is finished.
The subsea project has moved during 2026 and its specification is now firmer than the range we carried in June. The Georgia–Romania Black Sea Submarine Cable is specified at 1,300 MW and ±525 kV over roughly 1,155 km, of which about 1,115 km is submarine and 40 km onshore, running between Anaklia in Georgia and the Constanţa area in Romania. Transelectrica hosted a technical workshop on 29 July 2026 covering the Black Sea seabed study, the cable route, authorisation of the Romanian section, the activity schedule and cost estimates — the project is in marine survey preparation. A joint venture, GECO Power Company, has been established by Azerenerji, Georgian State Electrosystem, Hungary's MVM and Romania's Transelectrica. Construction completion is estimated at 2030.
A final investment decision on the subsea route would set the competitive benchmark for the overland corridor's economics. None has been published as at 7 August 2026.
Türkiye's installed electricity capacity reached 126,113 MW at the end of June 2026, on Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources data. Renewables accounted for 79,062 MW, or 62.7%. Solar stood at 27,210 MW (21.6% of the system) and wind at 15,281 MW (12.1%), for a combined 42,491 MW, or 33.7%. The domestic-resource share was 71.9%.
The National Energy Plan targets 120 GW of combined solar and wind by 2035. This is a monthly series, so any figure carried more than a few weeks is out of date — the numbers above are the end-June 2026 print, published on 30 July 2026.
| Source | Installed capacity | Share of system |
|---|---|---|
| Total installed capacity | 126,113 MW | — |
| Renewables, all sources | 79,062 MW | 62.7% |
| Solar | 27,210 MW | 21.6% |
| Wind | 15,281 MW | 12.1% |
| Solar and wind combined | 42,491 MW | 33.7% |
| Solar and wind, 2035 target | 120,000 MW | National Energy Plan |
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, June 2026 data, published 30 July 2026. The end-May print was 125,598 MW total, 26,899 MW solar and 15,122 MW wind — included here to show the rate of movement, not as an alternative reading.
Electricity imported into the EU is itself a CBAM good. Under Article 7 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, embedded emissions for imported electricity are calculated on default values unless the importer demonstrates actual emissions under the Annex IV conditions — which include a power purchase agreement, metering and emissions-threshold requirements, and firm nomination of interconnection capacity.
Corridor power that can meet those conditions crosses the carbon border on different terms than default-priced power. The size of the difference is specific to your contract and your volumes, and the certification mechanics are still maturing. The related mechanics for goods rather than power are on our CBAM page.
An export route monetises a renewable base that is already 62.7% of installed capacity and still building. The gating asset is not generation; it is certification — guarantees of origin, metering, and the contractual arrangements that let a Bulgarian or Greek offtaker treat Turkish power as verified green. The same arrangements feed Turkish exporters' own emissions accounting as EU carbon rules widen, which is the argument for building them before an export route exists rather than after.
A $30 billion transmission and distribution programme over a decade is a procurement pipeline: transformers, HV cables, converter stations, switchgear, substation EPC, grid software. Turkish electrical-equipment manufacturers sit on both sides of it — supplying the domestic build, and exporting into EU grid operators running their own reinforcement programmes. Who qualifies onto those tender lists over 2026–2028 is the slower-cycle commercial story behind the corridor headline. Qualification is an administrative sequence with named owners inside the buyer, and it can be worked now; the mechanics are on our supplier qualification page.
An announced project to transmit and trade renewable electricity from the Caspian region through Georgia and Türkiye to Bulgaria and onward into European markets. The four energy ministries signed a memorandum of understanding in April 2025; Türkiye's energy minister announced the project publicly at the Baku Energy Forum on 1 June 2026; and at Baku Energy Week the parties confirmed a preliminary feasibility study would begin in 2026. No capacity figure, route alignment or financing structure has been published as at 7 August 2026.
Yes, at limited scale. Türkiye's grid runs in synchronous parallel with the Continental European system and power already crosses the Bulgarian and Greek borders. The constraint is interconnection capacity: national planning puts export capacity across all borders at 2.3 GW in 2024, targeting 6.8 GW by 2035. In ENTSO-E's Regional Investment Plan 2024, the new Greece–Türkiye 400 kV line carries a 2031 commissioning year and the second Bulgaria–Türkiye line is dated 2035 and listed as under consideration.
Yes. Electricity is inside the CBAM product scope. Under Article 7 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, embedded emissions for imported electricity are calculated on default values unless the importer demonstrates actual emissions under the Annex IV conditions, which include a power purchase agreement, metering and emissions-threshold requirements, and firm nomination of interconnection capacity. That is why certification, not generation, is the gating item for corridor power.
79,062 MW at the end of June 2026, or 62.7% of a 126,113 MW system, on Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources data. Solar was 27,210 MW and wind 15,281 MW, together 42,491 MW or 33.7% of installed capacity. The National Energy Plan targets 120 GW of combined solar and wind by 2035. This series is published monthly, so check the current print before using these figures in a model.
It is a decade-long procurement pipeline covering transformers, HV cables, converter stations, switchgear, substation EPC and grid software. For a supplier the practical question is not the headline number but the qualification sequence: getting registered as an approved vendor, getting the technical file accepted, and being on the tender list when the first packages go out over 2026–2028. That work does not wait for the corridor to be defined.
If you supply grid equipment, the corridor timetable is not your timetable — the tender list is. That work starts before the route is drawn.
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