Hormuz · Bab al-Mandeb · Ceasefire · The reordering of business geography.
On 7–8 April, the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. Markets rallied. Within 24 hours, the agreement began to fracture: Israel launched its strongest wave of strikes on Lebanon since the war began, Iran paused the Hormuz reopening, and only four dry cargo vessels transited the strait on the first day of the truce. Iran continues to charge tolls exceeding $1M per ship and requires all vessels to coordinate passage with its armed forces.
The ceasefire talks collapsed on 10 April. Pakistan's mediation stalled. Türkiye and Egypt are now exploring alternative venues — Doha or Istanbul — and fresh proposals to break the deadlock. For any business running on Hormuz throughput, the operational assumption should be: closed, indefinite, with brief windows that cannot be scheduled against.