Supply chain disruptions, raw material shortages, and strategic options after the 28 February operation and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US–Israeli military operation against Iran on 28 February 2026 triggered a systemic economic shock through Turkey. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz — carrying ~20% of global oil, 25% of LNG, and 15% of aluminum — has created cascading disruptions. Turkey, importing ~90% of its energy and maintaining deep Gulf trade links, is among the most exposed emerging markets. An estimated $25–30B in capital has left Turkey in one month; CBRT has spent over $50B in FX intervention.
Four pressure points to watch: (1) energy and inflation — annual inflation at 31.5% with the 16% target now unrealistic; (2) aluminum — Gulf smelters (Alba, Qatalum) on force majeure, LME prices past $3,500/ton; (3) fertilizer — Gulf states supply 15–25% of Turkey's nitrogen fertilizers, global urea prices up ~60%, no strategic fertilizer reserves exist; (4) capital and FX — hot money exit accelerating. Industrial importers should be pre-positioning alternate supply and FX hedges now, not after the next leg.